CMIP6 projections of wave climate change in the Mediterranean sea by the end of the twenty-first century

Recently published wave simulations from WaveWatch-III, corresponding to eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models, were used to estimate the changes in the significant wave height, mean wave period, wave energy flux, and sea surface winds in the Mediterranean basin projected for 2100. The resolution of the data was 0.5^o x 0.5^o, and projections were calculated for SSP126 and SSP585 shared socioeconomic pathways. With respect to the current situation, for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 126 (SSP126 scenario), an almost static picture emerges, with some small areas in the East Mediterranean exhibiting minor positive trends. Under the SSP585 scenario, significant negative trends are expected throughout the Mediterranean region. Under this scenario, the 2010–2020 decade represents a tipping point in the Mediterranean, in contrast to previous decades, where almost constant values were recorded.