Abstract
In line with the global shift to transition away from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources, tidal stream energy has emerged as a promising renewable option. This study investigates the tidal stream energy resources along the Dutch coast and focuses on the impact of Mean Sea Level (MSL) rise on the future resource potential. A THETIS high-resolution unstructured model is used. The model is validated against sea surface elevations, and the Dutch tidal stream resource uncertainties are well defined. The validated model is used to evaluate the tidal stream energy potential of the Netherlands, regions in the Wadden Sea and Westerschelde in Zeeland display noteworthy potential, evidenced by maximum average flow velocities of 1.3 m/s and maximum average energy densities of 1600 W/m2 for the Wadden Sea and maximum average flow velocities of 0.75 m/s and maximum average energy densities of 300 W/m2for the Westerschelde. Forecasting the 2050 tidal stream resource, considering a projected 118 mm MSL rise, results indicate persistent energy characteristics, with minimal fluctuations in average velocities and average energy density when compared to the 2016 model. In the Wadden Sea and Zeeland, respectively, only marginal changes of +25W/m2and +8 W/m2are observed in average energy density for those same locations. Furthermore, the inclusion of long-term constituents has negligible effects on the 2050 results, emphasising the stability of the tidal stream energy source. Tidal stream energy in the Netherlands stands out as a reliable and resilient energy source, demonstrating consistency in the face of projected MSL rise. Such predictability has the potential to contribute significantly to fostering a sustainable and secure energy system in the Netherlands, while aligning with global efforts to combat climate change.