Abstract
Marine energy could play a significant role in the long-term energy system in Europe, and substantial resources have been allocated to research and development in this field. The main objective of this paper is to assess how technology improvements affect the deployment of marine energy in the EU. To do so the linear optimization, technology-rich model JRC-EU-TIMES is used. A sensitivity analysis is performed, varying technology costs and conversion efficiency under two different carbon-emissions paths for Europe: a current policy initiative scenario and a scenario with long-term overall CO2 emission reductions. We conclude that, within the range of technology improvements explored, wave energy does not become cost-competitive in the modelled horizon. For tidal energy, although costs are important in determining its deployment, conversion efficiency also plays a crucial role. Ensuring the cost-effectiveness of tidal power by 2030 requires efficiency improvements by 40% above current expectations or cost reductions by 50%. High carbon prices are also needed to improve the competitiveness of marine energy. Finally, our results indicate that investing 0.1–1.1 BEuro2010 per year in R&D and innovation for the marine power industry could be cost-effective in the EU, if leading to cost reduction or efficiency improvements in the range explored.