Abstract
The efficiency of wave energy converters (WECs) is generally evaluated in terms of historical wave conditions that do not necessarily represent the conditions that those devices will encounter when put into operation. The main objective of the study is to assess the historical and near future efficiency and energy cost of two WECs (Aqua Buoy and Pelamis). A SWAN model was used to downscale the wave parameters along the NW coast of the Iberian Peninsula both for a historical period (1979–2005) and the near future (2026–2045) under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse scenario. The past and future efficiency of both WECs were computed in terms of two parameters that capture the relationship between sea states and the WEC power matrices: the load factor and the capture width. The wave power resource and the electric power capacity of both the WECs will decrease in the near future. The load factor for Aqua Buoy will decrease in the entire area, while it will remain unchanged for Pelamis in most of the area, except north of 43.5° N. The capture width and cost of energy will increase for both devices. The methodology here applied can be easily applied to any device and coastal domain under different climate change scenarios.