This report sets out the Pelamis experience with Cost of Energy (CoE) modelling, summarises the various tools developed and results obtained through the programme, and highlights the key insights it gave. It also draws conclusions and recommendations from the experience.
This report is written to provide insight into how the Pelamis models and projections moved and developed with time and with progress of the technology up the TRL scale. The information is captured here to provide assistance in assessing CoE projections for new or earlier stage technologies and to help ensure learning from this experience is realised.
An introduction and timeline of modelling techniques used, how they evolved into a comprehensive set of economic modelling tools as experience with real full scale machines was gained is given. This includes discussion on how initially optimistic projections become progressively more realistic. Also provided is a high level description for the primary set of economic modelling tools produced with and for utility partners and how they were validated with real machine data and the experience gained from them. The level of validation of the various inputs is summarised alongside the resulting error bounds. Where appropriate, this has been generalised to form a recommendation for confidence bounds in similar calculations.